Opening Leads 28

Another deal from X-Clubs that produced some extraordinary results. The opening lead would appear to be a given, and so should the outcome, but read on and you’ll be surprised!

Board 17 from X-Clubs 1/04/2025
Dealer N Nil Vul

JT54
KQJ652
94
T
AKQ8
AT98
K6
Q97
93
43
AQJT8
KJ32
762
7
7532
A8654

I imagine that most Norths would open this with a weak 2H. Even those who have been told that a weak two should not be opened in one major if you have four cards in the other. After the weak 2H opening the final contract of 3NT played by West is a foregone conclusion unless East bids 3D and that tempts West into 6NT. But it really does not matter whether West plays in 3NT or 6NT, any competent declarer should make twelve tricks because there is only one way to play No Trumps on the king of hearts lead. Declarer has a certain second heart stop, and ducking the opening lead is a mistake, because if North also has six hearts, which the 2H opening would have told declarer, South has a singleton. And ducking the first heart will achieve nothing because the club play will still be necessary apart from the five diamond and three spade tricks. Now let’s look at the play if declarer takes the first heart trick. A declarer who fails to think and count the available tricks will immediately run all the diamonds, and in the process find that the only player who will be having discard problems will be declarer! It should be a very simple play to win the first heart and play on clubs immediately, and claim the rest of the tricks when South cannot produce a second heart.

Some interesting statistics:
FOUR Wests were in 6NT. One made, one was down one, one was down two, and the fourth one must have totally panicked, and was down three! As for those in 3NT, 14 made six, 21 made five, and 14 made only four, a big gain for the more competent declarers. So, as far as opening leads are concerned, do the obvious and hope declarer goes wrong. As it happens, any opening lead would result in declarer making six, but of course in 6NT declarer should have no option but to win the first trick and play on clubs.