This deal comes from another match point session, where the opening lead can score or lose you many match points, as of course can the declarer play. In this deal only overtricks mattered, and the best lead from a hand that has little of any substance, resulted in a good match point score, in fact over 80% on the board, but it also needed the cooperation of partner.
Board 13. Dealer N All Vul
Firstly, let’s look at what can happen when South plays in 3NT. Most Wests would, and in fact did, lead a low heart, after which twelve tricks seem to be inevitable: two hearts, four diamonds, five clubs and the ace of spades. Yet somehow many declarers were mesmerised by the availability of a spade finesse and took it (still hoping to make thirteen tricks???). But the serious stuff comes about when East is on lead, given that North has opened 1C and South bid 1D, North 1H, South 1S, North 1NT and South 3NT. Finding the unbid suit not being an option, East will probably choose between spades and hearts. Since spades is dummy’s second suit, it seems sensible to attack that. Leading fourth from a jack is considered a poor lead, and with the J98 at the top, I would lead the NINE or JACK, with a slight preference for the nine. What a spade lead does is limit declarer to eleven tricks, a slightly better than average score for EW, but as it happens there is an even better lead which limits declarer to only ten tricks. Any East who led the three of hearts would have scored over 65% on the board, with two heart tricks and the ace of diamonds coming their way. And if anyone is suggesting a ‘give away nothing’ minor suit lead, I suspect that an expert declarer will still make eleven tricks.
Here are some results for NS for 3NT making 4, 5, and 6:
Made 4: 40%
Made 5: 60%
Made 6: 90%
So, only 60% for EW for keeping declarer to ten tricks. That is what happens when some pairs can’t even bid to game. EW pairs who limited declarers in 3NT to just one overtrick deserved better!
76
A952
JT
AQ973