The Guessing Game 01
The Guessing Game
In this series, I hope to teach the reader how to make the best guess when they have to make the opening lead. As part of the exercise I have asked a number of club players to offer their guesses as to a) dummy’s cards and b) their opening lead. This is what I said to them.
“This series will be about opening leads, because they are the one single most important part of defence. They set the scene for the rest of the defence. You will expect to defend half the time, so if you can defend better than others, your overall scores will be much better than others. Don’t forget that it takes TWO people to defend but only ONE is responsible for the opening lead. It is therefore most important that your partner also understands what you are trying to achieve with your opening lead. Wouldn’t it be great if you and your partner, when defending, could see, from the very first card played, what everyone holds? Surprisingly, you CAN! I exaggerate of course, but a good pair of defenders will be able to GUESS with an amazing degree of accuracy, just how they, as a partnership, can best defend right from the very first card played.”
This series will not be aimed at any particular level, but I do hope that the reader will learn the importance of ‘guesswork’.
The first chapter of this series comes from a deal from a recent Swiss Pairs event, but it is not much different from many that occur during our normal match point sessions at X-Clubs. I have chosen it because it provides some good lessons in guesswork.
Put yourself in the SOUTH seat. This is your hand:
Dealer W Nil Vul
 QJ9 |
 9642 |
 A7 |
 K932 |
This was the bidding at most tables:
| South | West | North | East |
|---|---|---|---|
| - | 1 | Pass | 1 |
| Pass | 2 | Pass | 3 |
| Pass | 3 | Pass | 3NT |
| Pass | Pass | Pass |
Now for our ‘guesswork’. Firstly, what does the bidding tell us? West has opened 1D. Nothing of note so far: West has 4+ diamonds and 11+ high card points. East has responded 1H. Again, nothing much, 6+ points and 4+ hearts. Now for West’s rebid, 2D. West now has 5+ diamonds and fewer than four
spades and fewer than four clubs. West probably does NOT have a balanced hand with 5332 distribution and 12-14 HCP, or West might have opened 1NT. Nor does West have a balanced hand and 15+ HCP since West would have rebid 1NT. We can therefore be almost certain that West has at least six diamonds and a minimum point count, say 11-13.
East has been pushing all the buttons since West’s opening bid. 3C is a forcing bid and generally seeking three card heart support. East might have fewer than four clubs. West has to keep bidding, and has now bid a three card spade suit. Does that show a spade stopper or not? Most EW pairs will not know themselves so not much point in asking. My guess would be that West probably holds Axx and realises that it is best for East to have a spade lead going round to Qx or Qxx.
So, what is our best guess now that we have to make the opening lead?
There are only two sensible ‘guesses’. Attack with your best suit, clubs, and hope that East’s 3C bid has been a probe rather than a decent second suit, or lead the suit that you know partner has at least four cards in: SPADES. Is there a downside to a spade lead? Yes, if dummy goes down with A10x or K10x and declarer has Kx or Ax. But the downside to a club lead is that declarer is likely to have good clubs. I would rate the SQ 9/10 and 2C 6/10, with no perfect answer. As for the best guess about dummy, let me show you the full deal as it was at the time.
Dealer W Nil Vul
| ||||||||||
|
| |||||||||
|
As we can see, the lead of the spade queen would have made life for declarer very difficult, especially if he was tempted to win the first trick with the ace and then finesse the nine of diamonds and later play on hearts, expecting the spade lead to be from length rather than a three card suit. But both defenders knew something that declarer did not. Do you get the drift?
I was pleasantly surprised how many of our panel of club players were so very accurate in their guess of dummy’s composition, some ‘seeing’ almost to every card!
