To quote one of my regular correspondents: “Deep Finesse is a genius when all the hands can be seen but would be quite dumb at the table”. Here is a perfect example of that.
Board 14 from Friday 1/07/22.
Dealer East Nil Vul
Sitting NS, we bid to 6NT, a reasonable match point contract. We were on the way to 7C until the usual hiccup after a 4C bid by South (1H-1S-3C-3D-4C). 7C is a pretty good grand slam. All that is required is for clubs to be 3-2 and a second round heart ruff to survive before all the trumps are drawn. But we not only missed the boat there, we also missed the boat because DF would have bid and made 7H!! Now any sane declarer in any heart slam would just play the hearts from the top and hope for the best, but not our DF. As far as I can see, to make 7H you need to create a ridiculous trump coup as well as take a risky 50% ruffing finesse in diamonds against East’s king. Then, after just two rounds of trumps followed by the ruffing diamond finesse and another diamond ruff in hand to shorten the trumps down to Q8, end up in dummy at trick eleven to lead through East’s J7 for the last two tricks. Now, how DUMB is that?
This should be a warning to anyone who takes Deep Finesse at face value. Avoid ridiculous contracts and silly plays just because Deep Finesse says you can make them. An 80% chance is always better than 5% no matter what Deep Finesse will tell you in hindsight. Try it for yourself by clicking here.
AKT54
9
AQJ6
Q74