A Risque Business

As declarer, what risks are you prepared to take for extra match points? And how do you assess your risk? Here is a very good example of when you might consider taking a risk and why.

Board 15 from Thursday 16/05/2019
Dealer S NS Vul

QT9
KJT753
6
A83
K4
A96
T84
KQ975
J76532
82
J975
4
A8
Q4
AKQ32
JT62

You are North and partner opens 1D. West overcalls 2C and you bid 2H; a ‘free bid’ that is forcing. South bids 3D and when you bid your hearts again, raises you to game. Against your 4H, East leads the four of clubs, which everyone at the table knows is a singleton. When dummy’s ten is covered by the queen and you win the ace, how do you proceed? You don’t have to be Nostradamus to see what will happen if you play on trumps. West will win the ace and play king and another club and give East a club ruff. But after that, you will be able to draw trumps and discard two spades on the top diamonds to make your contract. Safe and sure I would think. Nothing can really go wrong if you allow opponents that club ruff.

But what were the chances that the SECOND diamond would be ruffed? Could West have a singleton diamond? If so, you lose badly. If West has a doubleton diamond, you break even. But if you find diamonds break 4-3 you win big time gathering most of the available match points. If you think about the possibilities at trick one, you may come to the right decision. If you are the sort of player who likes to get as many match points as possible when the reward-to-risk ratio is on your side, you will take the risk that not one declarer was prepared to take when this deal was played at our club. I wonder how many across all the X-Clubs were such risk takers?

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