Re Merry Xmas X-Clubs
Second, and final, thoughts:
Board 20 . Dealer W All Vul
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9
A74
7542
AKT74The bidding was just as you might expect. West opened 1H, North overcalled 2C, East bid 2S and West 4S. I had to make the opening lead. That is where I came unstuck because I did not lead partner’s suit!
I got absolutely rubbished by my partner, because our declarer made eleven tricks instead of ten, and we scored 0%. I was convinced that my opening lead was the right one, and that this was one of the few times that we scored zero, as against the many times my well thought out opening lead would score over 80%. But trying to argue was clearly a waste of time, so I enlisted two people to help prove that I was in fact wrong. Firstly, I asked one of New Zealand’s best (arguably THE best) what he would lead, and he unequivocally said “a club”. Then, having been convinced that a club was indeed the best lead, I consulted a fellow Hutt Club player, Peter Hawkes, one who was a very keen Googler and had become familiar with AI as it pertains to bridge. I gave him the bidding and the South hand and asked him to get his ChatGPT AI helper to deal out ten random deals where the South hand was a constant and the other three met the following criteria:
- South has the same hand each time
- West has five hearts, 3 or 4 spades, and 11-14 High card points
- North has five clubs which include at least two honours, no more than four diamonds, and 10-14 HCP
- East has 5 or 6 spades and 11-14 HCP. Randomly select ten such deals
The genius with the AI then came up with ten deals, all with the South hand as the fixed hand from which the opening lead was to be made.
I won’t bore the readers by showing them all ten deals, but here is my assessment of the results that would be obtained from best play (I do not have the benefit of Deep Finesse).
There may well have been different methods employed by declarer, but I guessed that on four deals, declarer would or should make exactly 4S given a club or diamond lead, on another four deals declarer would make five given either a club or diamond lead, and only on two would the outcome have depended on the opening lead.
But the other two cases were of great interest. First, deal 9 on which declarer would have made SIX given a diamond lead. BUT the specifications had left something out and on this deal East had SIX diamonds and five spades. Not even I would have led a diamond had East made the obvious 2D bid first and then bid spades. And the final deal is the clincher: the diamond lead defeated 4S!
Yes, you can make the same lead as everyone else and you will score 50% on these hands, or you can make a lead that will score you zero once, and 90% five times. That is my theory and I will stick to it, but only with a very understanding partner.
Anyone doubting the authenticity of this is welcome to ask me for a record of each of the hands, all of which I have on a file.
And finally, wishing you a very happy holiday season and may your bridge, and your results, exceed all expectations in 2026.
Vil Gravis
