The Guessing Game 02
This deal comes from a recent X-Clubs session which was used as one session of a Swiss Pairs series at our club. In this form of the game both the contract and the opening lead could have made a huge impact on the result of an 8-board match. That is because of the possibility of a slam being bid, and the opening lead if the slam was played by either North or South. But the events that I expected to see did not eventuate at our club, with nary a slam bid anywhere. Even across the whole of X-Clubs the 6S slam was only bid four times, with surprising results. But more of that later. Let’s have some guessing practice to see what we can learn about leads against small slams.
Dealer N NS Vul
You are WEST and pick up this hand:
 3 |
 KT9762 |
 KT |
 JT72 |
This was the bidding:
| South | West | North | East |
|---|---|---|---|
| - | - | 1NT | Pass |
| 3 | Pass | 4 | Pass |
| 4NT | Pass | 5 | Pass |
| 6 | Pass | Pass | Pass |
There may be better ways to bid the hand but the explanation you get is that 3S shows slam interest, 4S shows spade support, 4NT is “Roman Key Card”, 5S shows two key cards plus the queen of trumps (spades).
Now for our ‘guesswork’. Firstly, what does the bidding tell us? North has a balanced hand with three or four spades. North has two key cards plus the SQ. The key cards must be two aces, not AK of spades because South would not be looking for a slam in a suit headed by the jack. As well as the two aces and queen of spades, dummy will more than likely have one or two queens.
Now let’s look at possible leads.
Against a confidently bid small slam, the recommendation is, as a rule, to be proactive and try to set up a second trick before declarer loses the one trick they expect to lose. Is that trick likely to be in hearts? Hardly, but not only that, a heart lead is asking for the queen to score a cheap trick, be it in dummy or declarer’s hand. A diamond is just as self destructive as a heart, how can we bank on partner having the queen or ace? And we know the reasons why a singleton trump (in fact any trump, but especially singleton) is generally not recommended as a lead against a confidently bid game or small slam. If giving nothing away is your major concern, that will probably be the case with the trump lead, but what you are sure to give declarer with that lead is the time to plan and execute the best play to succeed, as well as picking up for declarer any missing trump honour.
Having eliminated all other suits, and for valid reasons, leaves only the club suit, and with the jack ten combination we have a perfect solution. If dummy has the queen of clubs and partner the king, you will set up a trick for the ten. Or, if dummy has the AQ you might strike the jackpot and find partner with the king. And if declarer and dummy have the AKQ of clubs between them, then no harm done. This was the actual deal, and there were 125 NS pairs, of which only four pairs bid 6S. Two Norths played 6S, a triumph for transfers and/or natural bidding. But, despite the fact that North, as declarer, was protected from a club lead, one of the two declarers found a way to go down. And of the two Souths to play 6S, one failed despite a heart lead, and the other MADE despite the jack of clubs lead. Go figure!
Board 5 from Tuesday 18/03/2025
Dealer N NS Vul
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Do I need to say anything about the declarer play in 4S, a contract in which so many declarers, both North and South, failed to make the twelve tricks available if played by North, or by South with a non-club lead? Maybe too many, having learnt how to finesse, could not resist the club finesse, or maybe they simply did not count their tricks: five spades, four diamonds two aces, and a club ruff in the North hand.
