Opening Leads Chapter 7
There are two very important things you need to consider when you are making your opening lead. First, you must take note of the bidding and try and work out from that just who might have what; second, you should try and work out how declarer is going to play the hand. Not all bidding by opponents is going to be accurate, in fact it will probably be anything but, but you have to believe as much as you need to. As for how declarer will play the contract, we all know how inept most declarers are, but if you can work out how declarer should play the contract, and then, if declarer might succeed by a likely line of play, you can try and do your best to persuade declarer to go wrong. Those are the two themes I want to examine in this chapter.
e) The bidding has been:
Dealer South, Nil Vul
| South | West | North | East |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1NT | Pass | 4 | Pass |
4 | Pass | 5 | Pass |
| 5NT | Pass | 6NT | Pass |
| Pass | Pass |
North’s 4C and 5C are ace and king asks, and South has shown one ace and three kings
Your hand:
 AQ2 |
| J973 |
 JT8 |
| 743 |
Your lead?
What does the bidding tell you? That opponents have enough points for a small slam; that declarer will have one ace and three kings. What kings is declarer likely to hold? With three kings announced by the response to 5C, what are the odds that declarer holds the king of spades, in the only suit you have any hope in. Given that you expect declarer will have the king of spades, can you see any hope of defeating the slam? Certainly not by taking your ace immediately, only by waiting for when declarer has to play that suit himself. Is declarer likely to need to play on spades, or will declarer have twelve tricks in the other suits? Count declarer’s likely tricks: four diamonds, four clubs, and....four heart tricks are highly unlikely unless dummy has four hearts and you lead a heart and declarer has A10 in that suit. Or something like that. But why take that risk and lead a heart?
Now the answer should be patently clear: declarer can only make eleven tricks in the other suits so will need to play on spades to try for the twelfth trick unless declarer has five clubs or diamonds, in which case you will only make your ace of spades. But since you know it can take one trick and only one trick in that case, why would there be any need to grab it immediately? It will either serve to help take two tricks or end up taking just one. As for a heart lead, you can now see the danger in that. On the other hand there can be nothing safer than a diamond lead or a club for that matter (though it is just possible that partner has Jxxx in clubs). Have I now convinced you that the only lead to give you the best chance of defeating 6NT is the jack of diamonds (or any diamond in fact).
The answer can be often found when you need only two tricks, rather than four or five. Defending against games is often much more difficult than slams, but the price is high if you go wrong and allow a slam to slip through your fingers. So, let’s take a look at the next slam.
f) The bidding has been:
Dealer South, Nil Vul
| South | West | North | East |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1NT | Pass | 2 | Pass |
| 2 | Pass | 4 | Pass |
| 4 | Pass | 5 | Pass |
| 5 | Pass | 6 | Pass |
| Pass | Pass |
North’s 4C and 5C are ace and king asks, and South has shown two aces and two kings
Your hand:
| AQ2 |
| J973 |
| JT8 |
| 743 |
Your lead?
You’re highly encouraged by your spade holding and can expect two trump tricks. That is because declarer has shown three kings and dummy will have the other. Thus, the odds are 3:1 that the 6S slam will go down. All you need do is wait. But, what if dummy’s one king is the king of spades? With North having decided on the spade slam, it is possible that North has something like K10xx of spades and declarer Jxxx. Now ask yourself how the slam will be played. An easy answer: irrespective of what cards there are outside spades, declarer will have to play on trumps and will do so by finessing through you for the QUEEN, the location of the ace will not be relevant. Can you do anything just in case that is the scenario? At least you have trump control of the first round, so you could look for a possible second round ruff in partner’s hand. That seems like a very long shot, but if partner does have a singleton somewhere, it is most likely to be in hearts: North might have four spades and five hearts and that would make sense given the bidding. So, even though a long shot, a low heart lead is a possibility.
Would you consider any other lead? Try persuading declarer not to take the spade finesse if dummy has KJxx which is the least expected possibility. How can you do that? Lead the ace of spades! Can that cost? Unlike in the earlier problem, no it can’t, because spades are trumps and declarer can’t make eleven more tricks in the side suits. If dummy comes down with KJxx of spades, it will take nerves of steel for a normal declarer to not go up with the king, not expecting that you had the queen as well. Of course if dummy does not have the king, just sit back and wait for declarer to finesse through your partner’s non existent queen. This is a sort of ‘safety play’, a lead that can not cost but may be the only way to lead declarer astray.
Finally another question: If you were declarer, would you have fallen for West’s ruse, or not, and if not, why not?
