Evil 22-03
Here is the actual deal that our opening lead problem was based on. Maybe you won’t agree with the bidding, but the bidding of opponents is not your concern, only what you can infer from it. I believe that the opening lead against the bidding that took place is not difficult to find IF you take notice of the bidding and the correct inferences. Let me repeat the bidding: 1S from West, 2NT from East, 6NT from West. Looking at the South hand, what should you be thinking? I was hoping that at least one of my readers would find the correct answer, and I do believe that there is only ONE card that South should lead.
Dealer W Nil Vul
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7
43
K8743
T9854The closest to the right (and you will agree that there IS a RIGHT when you read on) answer came from one of the many readers who would lead the ten of hearts. His rationale was perfect up to a point but he missed the punchline.
Here is what he said: “West must have at least a 19 count and solid spade suit, as well as three aces or he might have bid differently. All we can hope for is that partner has a king. If partner has the king of spades, the contract will never make; if partner has the king of clubs, he will never make it and 6NT will surely make. Therefore there are only two suits to choose from, so I lead my top heart and hope partner has the king.”
How did my reader miss the ‘punchline’? Because the correct suit to lead must be a DIAMOND, not a heart. Why? Because South has so many hearts that it is certain that North has at least two more DIAMONDS than hearts, which surely increases the chances considerably that he has the king of diamonds and not the king of hearts. As you can see, it matters not which diamond South leads, but of course South must take out some extra insurance by leading the NINE. Why? Because if by some chance West has bid 6NT with only two aces and has Q10 of diamonds and declarer Ax(x), the jack is a disaster and the nine gives declarer a guess if a guess on the opening lead is required.
