The bidding on board 10 would almost certainly lead to East playing in 3NT after either a transfer sequence when East opens 1NT, or another invitational sequence where West shows an 11 or 12 point hand with five spades. Take a look at just the South hand and decide what you would lead.
Board 10 from Monday 13/03/23
Dealer East All Vul
Most Souths led a diamond. Some led the jack, others the two, some even the king. A diamond lead gave declarer an easy nine tricks. Is what you have been taught to lead against No Trumps, “fourth highest of longest and strongest” a rule to be followed always, or is it, as I have said before, a guideline? You need to think about your leads a bit more than that. East has 14 HCP and West 11 or 12. That leaves partner about three! Do you want to risk everything on a diamond lead hoping that partner has the ace or queen and declarer does not have nine tricks before you gain the lead, or do you want to be safer and lead a club? I asked a number of club players what they would lead and nearly all chose a diamond. I don’t think it matters which diamond you lead as long as you don’t lead one at all. Those who chose a club as a safer option would have been rewarded if the defence had got things right later in the play, and that would not have been easy or obvious.
Not one person across the whole of XClubs made the lead that I have recommended as a must for inclusion in any repertoire of leads against No Trumps: the ACE from AQx specifically. You would surely have led the ace of hearts if you had AK7, just to see dummy and get partner’s signal, so what is the real difference between leading the ace when you have AQ7? The only difference is that once in a blue moon it will allow declarer to make the king in his own hand as the vital trick when any other defence would have resulted in down one. Is that likely? And if you know partner will have three or four points, why should they be in diamonds rather than hearts? If it is the king of hearts, partner can signal, and if partner doesn’t like it, you can still try diamonds, depending on what is in dummy. The lead of the ace when you have AQx will never deceive partner if you have it in your repertoire, because either partner will expect AKx(x) from you or AQx. When dummy appears it will almost certainly be obvious to partner what you hold. Not convinced? It has worked for me five times out of five so far, so I am convinced and waiting for the next time it happens.
T543
K865
54
642