X-Clubs Play_11
This deal from Tuesday 14/12/2021 should have led to a reasonable slam that made. Surprise, surprise, not only was the slam not bid often enough, it wasn’t made often enough either.
While there is no certain way to ensure that 6S makes (before you see all the hands), bridge is also about giving yourself the best chance of making your contract, and that requires more than just working out some percentages and playing accordingly. Though I’m sure even the statisticians in our midst would have come to the right conclusion about the best way to play the hand. Let me show you the deal:
Board 7 Dealer S All Vul
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T8
954
T9642
A92West opens 2C, 2S from East and inevitably the final contract should then be 6S, though I noted that there were a few in the very inferior 6NT. 6S should make no matter what the opening lead is, though a low club lead should give declarer the hint that South probably does not have the ace, a lead that given the bidding might often be made. But let’s say South leads the diamond eight. How should declarer play then? There is a certain club loser and potential heart loser, but declarer can combine the chances in both suits by finessing in both: a club to the ten and if this loses to the jack, take the heart finesse. Why a club to the ten and not the king? Because playing the king relies on South having the ace and not playing it, the illusion of only one certain club loser is just that: an illusion. One club loser (the king) to the ace with North will not solve the problem, will it?
Another factor is the knowledge of how defenders will behave in a real life situation and not on paper. If you lead a club towards that dummy, is South not likely to rise with the ace if he has it? Or, indeed, if he has the ace of clubs, would he not have led it in a match point game, given the bidding? To my mind, finessing the C10 gives you about an 80% chance of making 6S given any normal distribution and normal defence. I had some suggestions that declarer should play for an elimination by eliminating diamonds and then playing a club to the king. I believe that this would alert a good defensive pair to what declarer’s problem is, and South would be alert enough to then not rise with the CA if he had not led it at trick one. Why be the unlucky expert? Just lead a club earlier and finesse the ten! Replay this board by clicking here.
