Eight ever, nine never.

From Wednesday 31st May
Board 2 Dealer E NS Vul

753
AT864
86
QT3
AJT9
K5
AQT42
95
KQ
QJ9
K9
AKJ742
8642
732
J753
86

Newer players need to learn the very basic things about declarer play. Like playing on the suit that will produce the most tricks, and playing the suit the best way you can to make the most number of tricks. Finessing, and knowing when to finesse, and knowing HOW to finesse, are usually a “must know” part of a declarer's game. Witness this deal from a recent lower grade session.

The basics seemed to have been forgotten, because the results for many EW pairs at the Hutt club were unbelievably poor, like 6NT down two, 4NT down two and 3NT making ONLY five. One East was in 6NT and did make six, by playing the hand the way people have been taught. Let me tell you again. When do you finesse?

  • When missing the QUEEN and you have an option to finesse or play the ace and king (i.e. 'going for the drop'), the odds favour the finesse IF you have EIGHT or fewer cards between you and dummy, and going for the drop if you have NINE or more cards between you and dummy. Tip: eight ever, nine never. Follow that unless you have evidence to the contrary.
  • Then, another rule: play on the suit that will produce the most tricks. There are SIX clubs in the East hand and only FIVE diamonds in the West hand, so playing the clubs will produce more tricks. The club suit also offers the opportunity to finesse, and with eight clubs in the two hands, the rule is to FINESSE. Here, there is only one way to finesse if you hope not lose a trick, and that is to lead from the WEST hand and put in the JACK from the East hand if North follows low. As you can see, North has the queen and the finesse works and declarer makes a total of twelve tricks if the ace of hearts has been taken at trick one, or a total of THIRTEEN tricks if the defence has not taken the ace at trick one.

The reader may have noted that the diamond suit also has five potential tricks. Is it correct to play off three top diamonds and expect, or hope, that the jack falls in three rounds, or is it better to cash the king and then FINESSE, leading to the TEN? The odds of a 4-2 break in a suit are greater than 3-3 but I really do not know whether, taking the diamond suit in isolation the odds favour playing them from the top or finessing against the jack in the South hand. The experts could no doubt tell me but I would definitely play that suit from the top. There are other considerations when playing a hand like this one. In 3NT you may be less worried about losing a trick, whereas in 6NT you should be very reluctant to take a finesse when you have lost one trick already. Nevertheless you should know the odds and play with them rather than against them.

This deal provides other interesting things to think about so I will take the opportunity to do that now. Look at it again:
Board 2 Dealer E NS Vul

753
AT864
86
QT3
AJT9
K5
AQT42
95
KQ
QJ9
K9
AKJ742
8642
732
J753
86

Let us consider it from how the bidding and play might go at a more advanced level. East would open 1C, West respond 1D, and East would bid 3NT. That should show at least 19 HCP, so West would bid 6NT though he might be a bit worried about a lead going through his K5 of hearts. After all, 19 plus 14 equals 33 which is the normal requirement for slam, and surely East would have at least the queen of hearts? If South leads 'fourth highest of longest and strongest' he will immediately give the slam away and declarer will have no more problems: there will be five diamond tricks, two club tricks, four spades, and two hearts, but a heart will have to be given away to the ace in order to ensure twelve tricks. All declarer has to do is ensure that the heart trick or tricks required are set up (after counting the certain tricks WITHOUT any more finesses required) and ensure there are no blockages when cashing the tricks (look at the spade suit, easy to get locked in the wrong hand which is East).

South should know better than to lead a low diamond against a small slam given the bidding, so let's say South looks for the safest lead, one that will be least likely to give anything away, and chooses a spade as the opening lead. There is a paradox in this story because by not giving a vital tricks away on the opening lead by leading a diamond, South has a 50-50 chance of making a lead that could give a good declarer an overtrick in 6NT, as you will see when you read on.

A club against 6NT by East is out of the question given East's opening bid, so South must choose a heart or a spade. With four small spades, it is less likely to do damage to partner's holding. But look what happens when South makes the apparently safest lead of a spade and a good declarer is at the helm. Declarer wins the first spade in hand and counts his top tricks: four spades, three diamonds, and two clubs. Two tricks can be developed by knocking out the ace of hearts but then either a club finesse would be required for the twelfth, or the jack of diamonds would need to drop.

Take another look at the hand. Declarer decides that rather than give up a trick to the ace of hearts immediately, he will rely on the chances offered in the club and diamond suits. He combines his chances by NOT playing on his long suit. That would involve taking the better odds finesse and losing a club would almost certainly lead to down one when the defence also takes the heart ace. It is therefore a finesse that is too dangerous to take at an early stage. Declarer now looks at the diamond suit and sees that if the jack falls in three rounds, there will be five diamond tricks, four spades, two clubs and a heart could be established before tackling the clubs: twelve easy tricks. The odds on the diamond suit are pretty good aren't they? Better than relying on a 50:50 club finesse, and that can also be left for later. So, declarer starts on diamonds and after playing off three rounds, gets the bad news, diamonds don't break, the jack hasn't fallen, and tricks are still required to make 6NT. Declarer still has the option of playing on hearts and hoping that South doesn't have the ace, which means he would also be able to take the jack of diamonds for down one. But declarer has been watching and counting and when North shows out on the third diamond, he is pretty sure that North will have more clubs than South. To test things further, declarer now leads his second spade and overtakes with the ace. Too many newer players find it goes against the grain to overtake a trick but there are many such plays when entries are scarce. This one is obvious and dummy now takes two more spade tricks. An extra trick is still required to make twelve, and declarer still has the option of a heart to establish a heart trick, or a club finesse. By watching carefully, declarer can usually decide which. In the play, declarer would probably have noticed enough hesitations, bum shifts etc to decide that North has either the ace of hearts or the queen of clubs. As it happens North has both, and by playing on hearts declarer would make six, by taking the club finesse, he would make an overtrick.

Another consideration: If South had the ace of hearts, in an average match point game, would South not have led it on the opening lead? And there IS another way to combine the chances, by removing the ace of hearts first, then cashing two top Clubs and if the queen doesn't drop, play on diamonds and hope the jack falls, or take the diamond finesse if you can work out the better odds after taking all other available tricks (hearts and spades). What would YOU have done as declarer? For one declarer the club finesse yielded thirteen tricks (after a spade lead) and another made twelve after a heart lead. Those who failed could not have followed normal principles of declarer play, and would do well to get some practice and read and re-read this chapter.