It's all about the Pudding
Sometimes, knowing how to finesse can be a bad thing, because you also need to know when to finesse and what the odds of success are.
Board 14 Dealer E Nil Vul from 09WED on 1st of March
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Q
JT9763
QJ984
5The bidding should not be too difficult for a Wednesday session. East opens 1C and West bids 1S. East rebids clubs. Despite the great suit, not quite enough points for a jump rebid, so just 2C. West now bids what the hand is worth: 4S. A slam might still be a possibility but settling for a conservative game can produce top results anyway - IF it is the correct game and IF declarer makes the best of the play. A seven card major suit should pretty well never be played in No Trumps, so definitely 4S here. When North opens the defence by leading the jack of hearts and West wins the queen, how should West proceed?
Of course trumps should be drawn as soon as possible but West may see that the king and queen are missing and that there is a finesse position. Leading from dummy and inserting the ten is a finesse but is likely to lose to EITHER the king or queen. A second finesse will now have every chance of succeeding, as it does in the hand we have here.
But the problem is that when North wins the queen after the first finesse, he continues hearts and South ruffs! I have also seen players take such a finesse, and when they lead the suit a second time, change their mind and, fearful that North might make both the king and queen, go up with the ace the second time.
The answer is comparatively simple if you think about the odds. It is still a 75% chance if you finesse twice, but the fact is that because there are NINE trumps in the combined EW hands, two rounds will clear trumps whenever they are split 2-2 and when they are 3-1 the chances are that the singleton will be an honour. Laying down the ace will clear up any confusion in the play, and that is what West should do. When the queen falls from North, the jack will lose to South's king but the rest of the play is 100%.
South can not do any harm however he continues and the last trump can be drawn and the two overtricks will be in the bag. No need to bid a slam, even if it has very good odds of success. The proof is in the pudding: only one pair bid 6S but declarer was not aware of the best 'percentage' line of play and down one was a bottom. Apart from ONE West, all others playing in game failed to make 12 tricks.
Since the first thing that our new players have been taught is “draw trumps” I find that quite surprising.
